The weekly Nasdaq read places the Nasdaq-100 in its Elliott Wave structure, counted on NQ futures and charted on QQQ, then cross-validated against the Magnificent 7. Each read gives the bias, the levels that confirm or kill it, and the exact price that proves it wrong. Free, every week.
The chart, live.
QQQ is the tradable proxy for the Nasdaq-100 and the instrument we chart here, a clean, unambiguous license. The structural work is done on NQ futures; QQQ tracks it tick for tick and is what most readers can actually pull up.
![QQQ weekly chart, dark theme, with Elliott Wave degree labels: the [5] high, the W-X correction underway, and the (A) target.](assets/QQQ_Weekly_WaveLabeled_Dark.png)
Flat, and comfortable being flat.
NQ LONG · QQQ LONG
The futures that carry the structure and the proxy that charts it both read bullish this week, an index still resolving where it sits in the larger structure rather than committing to a fresh trend. The heaviest names pull in different directions and cancel in the aggregate, so the conviction lives in single names now, not in the index as a whole. Until price reclaims the line that flips the read or loses the line that confirms it, the levels below are where the week declares itself. The cross-validation composite across the eight heaviest names reads 0.038.
Two paths, weighted
- 57%: Scenario K, primary (bullish). The June 3 top holds and this bounce sits inside a larger decline. New lows below 27,200 are still owed. Wait for the breakdown to confirm rather than buying the bounce.
- 30%: Scenario D (bearish). The correction already ended at the July low and this is a fresh advance. Confirmation comes on a reclaim of 29,052.75.
- 13%: the rest. A new record above 27,493.50 that never ended the advance (10%), a deeper generational top (10%), and refuted residuals. Forty against thirty-four is a coin flip with a slight bearish lean.
Where it confirms or kills
| Level (NQ / QQQ) | Price | Means |
|---|---|---|
| Reclaim / confirm up (QQQ) | 700.00 | Bull case (K) takes over, the hinge |
| Reclaim / confirm up (NQ) | 29,052.75 | The single most important number in the book |
| Decision / no-trade band | 28,927–30,340 | Between the two edges it's noise |
| Breakdown (NQ / QQQ) | 31,269.00 / 745.45 | Sustained close below confirms the decline's first leg |
| New record (NQ) | 27,493.50 | A new high above the June record ends the bear debate |
NQ 29,917.25 · QQQ $744.44 at the Sep 18 close. Structural confidence 47 (NQ) / 50 (QQQ).
The tells I'm watching
- A reclaim above NQ 29,052.75 (QQQ 700.00): flips the primary to the bull case (K) and opens a run at the record; FLAT to LONG.
- A sustained close below NQ 31,269.00 (QQQ 745.45): confirms the decline's first leg and hands the tape to the bears toward 32,192.00 then the July low at 27,498.75.
- A new record above NQ 27,493.50: the advance never ended; the bear debate is over.
- The lagging Mag 7 turning up to join Nvidia, Meta and SpaceX: internals confirming the index instead of splitting it.
- The war, oil, and the next Fed meeting are the more likely triggers than the tape itself.
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